Tuesday, May 27, 2014

The T Theory

After listening to Marty Schwartz' market wizard interview, I finally overcame my inertia and looked up Terry Laundry's Magic T Theory. The essence of the T Theory is:

  • The regularity of occurrence of market bottoms/crises.
  • The time symmetry between rallies and sell-offs, the longer the rally and the longer of sell-off. 
  • There are longer (40 year) cycles and shorter cycles (4 - 7 year).
T. Laundry's explanation of the time symmetry is like a process of cash buildup (during declines) and cash spend (during rallies). The other insight that Terry discussed is that market bottoms take place on panic selling. Terry also quoted another market newletter writer who observed that the market tops occur when there is excessive speculation. The behavior symmetry is mirrored by excessive greed and fear.