Friday, January 16, 2026

SNAP

 Thesis: 

  • The co. beat in 3Q25 and guided higher for 1Q26. 
  • Price/sales at 2x
  • Key catalyst is the co is charging for storage: 
  • Chart looks at the Crossing point of the 80-15 day SMA
  • Personal note: Jim Lazaridis' daughter (16) is still using snap with her friends, planning to pay for the storage! 
Risks:
  • The co has not figured out how to make $ from its users like FB. 
  • Financial metrics is horrible
  • Not a usual value/compounding investment
  • Turn around story
    • New Management?
    • New Strategy?
  • potential takeout candidate
  • Entry $7.8, short term support $7.2 (50% loss exit) and Long Term support of 6.9 (100% loss exit)
  • Potential add: after the reversal of current slide from 9 to 7.6 (5-6 days?)

  • Free Limit: You get 5GB of free storage for saved Memories.
    • Over the Limit: If you exceed 5GB, you'll see alerts and get a year of temporary storage for excess memories.
    • Paid Options:
      • Standard Plan: Around 100GB for about $1.99/month.
      • Snapchat+: Includes 250GB for the subscription fee (around $3.99/month).
      • Snapchat Platinum: Offers 5TB for a higher fee (around $14.99-$15.99/month). 

    The company is the cheapest social media stock. Here is a snap summery of the 3Q25:

    Beat on revenue and EPS:Snap reported revenue of $1.51 billion and a loss of $0.06 per share, beating analyst estimates of $1.49 billion in revenue and a loss of $0.12 per share.

    Daily active users surpass expectations:The company's key user growth metric, daily active users (DAUs), increased 8% year-over-year to 477 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of 476.31 million. Positive Q4 guidance issued:Snap provided an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, projecting revenue between $1.68 billion and $1.71 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $280 million to $310 million, both surpassing analyst estimates.


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