Jan 27, 2026

 Li Lu's value investing key elements:

• Consider yourself as a partial owner of the business
• Invest with a margin of safety
• Invest within your circle of competence. 

Very often I dont follow these rules. This morning UNH tanked almost 20% on Trump's new proposal of a falt Medicare advantage rates over last year. What is my expertise on UNH or healthcare = 0. The result and guidance is soft. I need to cut it! I need to review other investments as well. Do I know much about cprt? lulu/deck? 

I need to have a frank conversation with Zuna who likes to stick to the rules, even when I am in surgery. I need to scale back my goodwill. Her trip to Cape Coral costs over $100 each time. 

I need to call Assistant living facilities near me. 

Spectrum next for my new iphone! 

Jan 26, 2026

I had my "cosmetic surgery" to remove all the lipomas last Friday! They removed 37 of them! I have cuts all over, mostly around my waist. I was very surprised at Zuna's unwillingness to work extra hours during my surgery. She also declined to watch Jethrow for Jackie for her upcoming birthday event. What a stranger! Was she born in the year of cold blooded snake, like stinky? Should scale back our generosity? 

I have been thinking about friends. Are they all good friends? How about the ones that only contact you when they need something? I hosted a former co-worker from NYC days. I only heard from him before he wanted to make a trip and play some golf in FL. How should I deal with people like that? ABG (Always be giving?). Or my friend's friends can have the soup of my chicken soup?

Chris Hohn's TCI Fund is a monster fund now with $70 bln AUM! My former co-worker! He is worth almost 12 Bones! Why do I suck so bad? My speculative strategy in the stock market lacks consistency, timing has been more wrong then right, over-trading, didn't pursue long term buy and hold strategy (I didn't believe in it). It is time to make some adjustments. Hohns strategy is very similar to Warren Buffett's and Li Lu's as well. His holdings are GE (plane engines, high margin biz), V, MCO, SPGI, MSFT.

Mom is a priority now. Maddy wants to take care of her now! I am very proud of her! I feel ashamed that I have been slacking off. Louise has been super helpful too. Stinky is not a good human being. I dont like people who have no empathy! His last chapter will be lonely one. 

SNAP

 Thesis: 

• The co. beat in 3Q25 and guided higher for 1Q26. 
• Price/sales at 2x
• Key catalyst is the co is charging for storage: 
• Chart looks at the Crossing point of the 80-15 day SMA
• Personal note: Jim Lazaridis' daughter (16) is still using snap with her friends, planning to pay for the storage! 

Risks:

• The co has not figured out how to make $ from its users like FB. 
• Financial metrics is horrible
• Not a usual value/compounding investment
• Turn around story
• New Management?
• New Strategy?
• potential takeout candidate
• Entry $7.8, short term support $7.2 (50% loss exit) and Long Term support of 6.9 (100% loss exit)
• Potential add: after the reversal of current slide from 9 to 7.6 (5-6 days?)

Free Limit: You get 5GB of free storage for saved Memories.

• Over the Limit: If you exceed 5GB, you'll see alerts and get a year of temporary storage for excess memories.
• Paid Options:
  • Standard Plan: Around 100GB for about $1.99/month.
  • Snapchat+: Includes 250GB for the subscription fee (around $3.99/month).
  • Snapchat Platinum: Offers 5TB for a higher fee (around $14.99-$15.99/month). 

The company is the cheapest social media stock. Here is a snap summery of the 3Q25:

Beat on revenue and EPS:Snap reported revenue of $1.51 billion and a loss of $0.06 per share, beating analyst estimates of $1.49 billion in revenue and a loss of $0.12 per share.

Daily active users surpass expectations:The company's key user growth metric, daily active users (DAUs), increased 8% year-over-year to 477 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of 476.31 million. Positive Q4 guidance issued:Snap provided an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, projecting revenue between $1.68 billion and $1.71 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $280 million to $310 million, both surpassing analyst estimates.

Jan 16 2026

 I got up last around 8:40 am, even though I woke up around 8:19 am. I spent an hour on my phone around 5 am. This is the problem. There is no reason for me to check my phone/internet/messages/other fun things at 5 AM! 

I started doing a morning routine, stretching, doing golf swings (I should listen to Genghis Khan music!). This should be the routine every day, even with TT. Live by example!

War trade is being put on: 

Up: defense related stocks (AVAV, BA, NOC, LMT, RCAT), Oil, Ag (NTR breaking out, MOS, CF (the         cheapest)).

Down: Retail (LULU, DECK, CPRT?)

NTR is very interesting, chart wise, CF is the most attractive ag name.

Real estate: 

• the electrician Eric has been great! He is fixing and accommodating me and my contractors inconsideration actions at Redington Shores
• Need to find a new plumber in Hudson for the permit!!! Time to beg:(, Started to ask people around: Chris, Ken, Jim, Mark. Chris hopefully!
• Eric mentioned something interesting: it would be difficult to take a loan out of the properties in the flood zone where the flood insurance may be required (expensive). Moving away from h2o?

Small experiment on trading. We shall see. 

ASML has gone parabolic along with other semi-equipment makers. The top should be near. 

INTU has gone down almost 15%. Dunno what is going on, but the valuation was high. The high flyers can just tank if the perceived growth slows down a little. 

AXON, DUOL, were the examples. 

Jan 14 2026

Fascinating story about IBKR, interactive brokers and the story of the its founder: Thomas Peterffy! 

I am selling AMP to buy IBKR. AMP has been a great compounder, but its AUM is underperforming, +7% yoy when the market is up almost 20%. They experience capital outflow issues, Not IBKR, which has been growing like weeds. The only negative for IBKR is its valuation (30 PE), but its growth rate should justify it. 

After seeing some good companies, VITL seems a little inadequate, so I am getting out. 

I need to add to AMZN, which I traded terribly. 

Siberian winter is over, the warm weather has been disrupted by a cold front. I need to look for greener pastures once again! 

My son Andres is so dear to me! He has done things for me nobody else would, not even my real children. I hope he can move closer to me and I love close families around! 

T 04-21-2020

Market

Down around 2% in all indices. IWM a little more. After learning more the CV (Corona Virus), it is hard to get rid of it as it seems. China tried to open and close cities/districts numerous times on re-occurring the spread of the virus. The re-opening of the economy wont be a V-shaped. There were increasing demand by politicians of the west to hold China accountable. The disaster, brought upon to the world by China, is unprecedented and may be comparable to the Great Depression. What do you expect the people who suffered feel about China and Chinese. A backlash is expected.

Crude oil is down 38% (down 56% by noon) this morning! The world realized there is not a lot of demand.

Portfolio

• NVDA - Get out because it seems it is still a semi-conductor stock, not a steady fast growth company. 
• PINS - Sell because it is too dependent on Ad sales. 
• OKTA - Great growth story
• AAXN - Growth stock with no competition, increasingly expand their business from Tasers to body cameras, to cloud offerings
• ROKU - this OS for smart TVs (1/3 of all TVs have their OS). They get paid on hours streamed. 
• EBAY - the most boring stock there is with no growth prospect. Sold PayPal, and there is nothing exciting about it. It rallied 15 days in a row! Short?

NVDA

 Investment Thesis: 

• The co makes the key semi chips for AI: GPU, dominating the field (90%+ market share)
• High Growth: the Latest 3Q25 saw a rev increase of 63% and EPS of 67%. 
• Growth Margin: 73%
• Operating Margin: 63%
• ROA: 66%, ROE: 91%, ROIC: 83%

Risks

• Sustaining these incredible high growth rate and high margin depend on ever increasing capex from hyper scalers (google, msft, meta, amzn). Msft spent $120B in year on AI, for instance, others are spending similar amount. Can this be sustainable? The slowdown is inevitable. The question is when. 
• Druckenmiller says invest on future, not on past nor present! (I skate to where the puck is going). 
• It is possible other players can step up the purchases when big techs slow down their capex?
• Competition: Google has TPU (Tensor PU), which is cheaper and seemingly more efficient for specific tasks. Gemini, which leads their peers, was trained on TPU. Google will make it available to others including META. Amazon and other have their own custom silicone as well. 

Technicals

• It is at the 80 day and 15 day moving average cross point. I lowered the position size from over 10% to 3%. 

Trading: 

• Initially, I got in at a decent level and position size.
• Subsequently, I bought high (on fake breakouts) and sell low (loss cutting:(, numerous times.